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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.