🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|