Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.