Daily Killings in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The mean count of daily killings monthly in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent administrative data. However, security experts have cautioned that homicide figures might not indicate enhanced national safety.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the director of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we’ve had in these past months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the least figure of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced decline in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state said: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

But, security analysts cautioned that relying on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true considering the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to accurately identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it may obscure days when there were especially elevated numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily average makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for serious offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst concluded.