Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
