‘A Strategic Error’: How the Reform UK Political Machine Faltered in a Welsh Byelection.
Yuliia Bond handles dual employment, cares for two children, and pursues studies at university. Last autumn, she made time to challenge Reform UK when it sought to win the Caerphilly constituency byelection.
Bond, a Ukrainian refugee who has settled in south Wales, stated she could not stay quiet as Reform aimed to gain the parliamentary seat in the Senedd, the Welsh parliament.
“Members of our Ukrainian community raised their voices,” Bond commented. “We challenged the misinformation because we didn’t want our neighbours from being deceived into feeling anger towards us. I hoped to avoid people becoming hostile to us because of lies. So I voiced my concerns and others did, too.
“Reform UK attempted to create panic and hate with tactics used not only in the UK, but by right-wing political parties across Europe and around the world. The messages they used in Caerphilly didn’t feel local. They felt borrowed – like someone copied a script from another country and posted it through our doors.”
A Confident Campaign Faces Community Resistance
The party, led by Nigel Farage, was certain it could claim victory in the byelection, especially as Labour, the dominant party in Wales for a century, appears to be declining rapidly. An energetic campaign by the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru – and people like Bond – successfully blocked the right-leaning party.
“Their biggest mistake was assuming that people here have little independent thought,” Bond argued. “They thought nobody would verify the facts. They believed that refugees are not just vulnerable, but somehow uninformed. That is not true. We may have escaped a war, but we are not naive. We comprehend policies.”
One of Reform’s central claims was that the Welsh government’s sanctuary nation scheme showed both it and Plaid supported a “large-scale immigration agenda” and that “those seeking asylum” were receiving “preferential treatment”. The claim did not hold water – more than 80% of the sanctuary funds had been spent on supporting Ukrainian refugees.
Bond commented: “When I saw the campaign literature, all I could see was a blatant attempt to create division, to scapegoat a small group, and stoke hate in a place that had been hospitable to us.
“It failed in Caerphilly because the Ukrainian community and refugees from different backgrounds are not strangers. We are integrated into the community. People are familiar with us.
“They see us at school gates, in shops, at work, giving our time. They know what we contribute. The portrayal in the leaflet simply contradicted reality. Most residents could feel that something wasn’t right. It felt like manipulation, not truth.”
The Aftermath and Enduring Lessons
Bond spoke in the “orchard of thanks” in Caerphilly, established by members of the Ukrainian community as a token of appreciation for the warm welcome they have received.
She said the presence of Reform had placed a burden on Ukrainian people in the area. “Those in a difficult position should not have to carry this burden. Yet, during the election, we had to speak out first. Only later did support come – from local residents, politicians from different parties, and local media.”
There are full Senedd elections in May when Reform hopes to become the leading party in Wales.
Bond said people campaigning against Reform in Wales in May and in other elections across the UK had to challenge the party’s messages swiftly and with certainty.
“As a Ukrainian, I know how harmful disinformation can be. The war in Ukraine did not start with weapons. It started with false narratives, propaganda and lies that prepared the ground for violence.
“Disinformation must be challenged promptly, forcefully and unambiguously, because hate travels faster than facts. The two months of that byelection were genuinely exhausting. We just had to get through it. But we survived together, and that is why the hate campaign was unsuccessful in Caerphilly.”
The Successful Campaign’s Perspective
For Lindsay Whittle, the victorious Plaid candidate, the period following the byelection was a whirlwind. Public recognition was immense.
Whittle said both Reform campaigners and their opponents had thought the party might win decisively. He said: “The thought was that they’d spend obscene amounts of money and beat us.”
So how did they stop the juggernaut? One reason, Whittle thinks, is that Plaid ran an positive, positive campaign. “Avoid attacking anyone personally because people don’t like that. Keep the message positive. Try and bring together people.
“People in Caerphilly have friends of different nationalities and they disapprove of people targeting their friends. Voters recognise that without certain people coming to this country, you’re not going to have an NHS or social care. I think Reform misjudged the people of Caerphilly.”
While Whittle featured on the headlines, an intense local campaign was under way in the background. Committed party members knocked on thousands of doors.
“We think it was the most important byelection we’ve ever fought,” one campaigner said. The victory was attributed to strong policies – and people who believe in them deeply.
Local Observations and Academic Analysis
A local editor was taken aback at how polarising the campaign was. “We had communities clashing with each other, campaign posters removed, really sharp debates online. I was raised in this area and I know everyone’s lovely so to see that side come out was a surprise.”
The turning point is believed to have been a televised debate when an audience member challenged the Reform candidate, stating that people with family members not born in the UK did not feel welcome since Reform had arrived.
“That was someone from our community who had a multi-ethnic family explicitly stating the impact all this rhetoric had,” the editor said. “Caerphilly may not be the most multicultural of places but we’ve always been open to people from overseas. That was the line in the sand.”
A politics lecturer and native of the area provided a particular perspective on the byelection.
He said Plaid was remarkably successful in presenting the election as a direct two-horse race – but this will be more difficult at the Senedd elections in May when a new representational system comes in.
“It tended to be somewhat ill-informed or, at times, patronising. But Caerphilly is not a post-industrial wasteland passively absorbing whatever political winds blow from England – it has its own political traditions and, like Wales more broadly, it has its own character and can’t simply be read through the lens of what is happening in England. It was gratifying to see my home town defy those lazy assumptions.”