A Forecasting Platform User Made $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro.
An individual made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about whether someone profited from confidential information of American actions.
Changing Odds in Wagers
Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the hours before former President Trump announced on Saturday that Maduro had been apprehended.
A particular user, which became a member in December and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of $32,537.
The identity is unknown. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Probability Spikes Before News Break
Trading information shows that users estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event.
However these probabilities had climbed to eleven percent by the end of the day and surged in the early hours of January 3rd, indicating a sharp shift in betting activity immediately prior to the public announcement was made.
"This particular bet has all the signs of a trade based on non-public details," commented a financial reform advocate.
A small number of other traders also profited significant sums from predicting the capture.
Political Attention Emerges
Politicians are starting to take note.
Proposed legislation presented on the start of the week seeks to ban federal workers from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager.
Market Background
Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the United States, with participants able to wager on everything from sports to politics.
Prediction markets were examined under the previous administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate.
Insider trading is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market industry.
A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."
