‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.
The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's kitchens.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases close completely.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in food service establishments.
"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.
Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are adopting solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."
Localized Effects
In a western metro, media reports say up to a significant portion of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their gas stocks have shrunk with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers note a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Authority's View
Yet, the officials insists there is no shortage.
India has more than 300 million household consumers and authorities say cylinders are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.
Approximately 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the conflict.
The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being prioritised for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".
"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been caused by false reports. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.
Growing Panic
Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.
According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be overstated.
India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The real vulnerability is LPG, analysts say.
India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.
Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.
An industry representative states price gouging.
"Suppliers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
